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Europe's Deadlock: How the Euro Crisis Could Be Solved — And Why It Still Won’t Happen, by David Marsh
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With new material on the astonishing 2014–15 monetary rollercoaster, an incisive chronicler of the euro’s upheavals explains how Europe’s single currency has lurched in and out of crisis—with widespread repercussions for Britain and the rest of the world.
“Marsh is an expert chronicler of European monetary union, and his analysis deserves serious consideration.”—George Soros
“Europe’s Deadlock makes a hard-hitting case against ‘muddled thinking, lack of imagination and straightforward incompetence on the part of the politicians and technocrats charged with policing the single currency.’”—Ferdinando Giugliano, Financial Times
“[A] pitiless analysis of a crisis that cannot be permitted to become a disaster.”—Iain Finlayson, The Times
- Sales Rank: #2919106 in Books
- Published on: 2016-04-26
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 7.70" h x .50" w x 5.10" l, .36 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 152 pages
Review
“His latest book, Europe’s Deadlock, makes a hard-hitting case against ‘muddled thinking, lack of imagination and straightforward incompetence on the part of the politicians and technocrats charged with policing the single currency’.”—Ferdinando Giugliano, Financial Times (Ferdinando Giugliano Financial Times 2013-08-17)
"A concise and devastating analysis. . . . A must-read for all in the world of finance."—Lord (Meghnad) Desai, Emeritus Professor of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science
(Lord (Meghnad) Desai)
"Marsh is an expert chronicler of European monetary union, and his analysis deserves serious consideration."—George Soros (George Soros)
“David Marsh’s short book is a more sceptical take on the euro crisis. A seasoned Bundesbank-watcher and historian of the euro, he has long argued, as did the Bundesbank, that the single currency cannot work without fiscal and political union.”—The Economist (The Economist 2013-07-18)
“Marsh lays out a number of options in this neat and concise book – all of which are being ‘blocked by indecision and incompetence at the top’.”—Philip Mauhan, New Statesman (Philip Mauhan New Statesman 2013-08-16)
“Readers of a nervous economic disposition should not be alarmed: this beginner’s guide to the euro crisis and what to do about it benefits from brevity and the comfort of grand, confident statements. Marsh’s book is a pretty pitiless analysis of a crisis that cannot be permitted to become a disaster.”—Iain Finlayson, The Times (Iain Finlayson The Times 2013-08-24)
About the Author
David Marsh is chairman and cofounder of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
the political and other matters that lie behind what otherwise seemed like a simple currency issue
By David C. Jones
I found this book interesting, thorough and well-presented. It explains, more carefully than many, the political and other matters that lie behind what otherwise seemed like a simple currency issue. The necessity of common sovereignty is, of course, paramount.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A Realistic and Pessimistic Description of the Many Knots and Dilemmas
By Rob Julian
This book is a good read and short at around five hours reading. As the title suggests, this book is not a polemic putting forward a particular criticism or solution, but more like an exasperated insiders view of the messy reality. The book reflects in a very realistic and believable way, almost to the point of being jaded, the fudge and compromise nature of the way the Euro zone is holding together. The author reveals how the reality is very messy, with political imperatives impinging upon economic decisions. A strength of this book is that Germany's role is put firmly centre stage, which makes David Marsh well placed to tell the story. His snippets on what certain key actors in the drama have said and thought adds atmosphere to the dry bones of the story.
He describes very well what seems to be the central knot of the matter; that, in being inside the Euro zone, Germany benefits from a weaker currency than its own imports and exports would dictate, therefore exaggerating its creditor position. The opposite is true of the southern European states experiencing difficulties. Overlaying an American United States model would suggest that the surplus countries should allow strong wage and price inflation at home and also send out transfer payments, to diffuse this disequilibrium. But Germany's history and understandable reluctance to subsidise spendthrift foreigners further makes this unattractive. So the disequilibrium remains and a series of fudges and incremental crisis solutions keep kicking the can down the road. The book hints at how this disequilibrium is instead dissipated (as well as from the more obvious official rescue packages) through German banks buying assets and bonds in the southern countries. This was one area where I would have liked more detail.
An important dimension to the Euro zone story the author discusses is the behaviour of Germany in the early period of the Euro. During this time Germany was battling through her own issues of reunification and a drive to improve the flexibility of her labour markets. The author alleges that the German establishment neglected to challenge the profligacy (which partly took the form of buying German cars etc.) of southern Euro countries while it was happening. The conflict between the moral tone Germans are prone to take towards their less prudent and industrious neighbours, and the benefits Germany gains, through obvious and less obvious devices, from her neighbours imprudence, is a theme which comes across well in this book.
All in all the title and the book provide a depressingly believable account of what is likely to happen and not happen in the Euro zone. For those well up to date with the subject, this book will be little more than revision. For the rest of us it is an efficient guide to an important subject.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A decent argument that paralysis will continue into the future regarding the Euro primarily due to political factors
By Yoda
Any review of this book would have to start by mentioning two facts. The first being the author's expertise on European Central Banking and the second the relatively short length of the book. The author, David Marsh, is a leading expert on European Central Banking with six serious books on the subject under the belt. He is also a Chairman and Co-Founder of the Official Monetary Financial Institutions Forum as well as having served as being a contributor to the Financial Times for almost twenty years. Hence this book is written by an authority on the topic, not some author with little or no expertise in the field. With respect to length, the book is only about 120 pages in terms of text and the pages are quite short, at about three paragraphs per page. Hence if the reader is looking for a scholarly tome on the subject this book will most likely disappoint. This reviewer recommends, for a more in-depth discussion, the author's previous book "The Euro: The Battle for the New Global Currency" (published in 2011).
In "Europe's Deadlock" Mr. Marsh posits that political constraints will prevent the Euro's members from taking the needed steps to strengthen the Euro in terms of the needed political institutional changes that are required to strengthen it. He also posits that, simultaneously, it is not in the interests of the majority and more powerful members of the Euro, in particular France and Germany, to let it collapse. Hence he expects the current political paralysis and inertia to continue into the future. This argument he makes quite intelligently and convincingly.
Specifically, Mr. Marsh states that for the Euro to be strengthened, in the long-term (as opposed to just managing the currency from one crisis to the next), the following steps need to be taken:
1) A full scale political union among the Euro's members needs to be reached that will lead to the creation of a centralized central bank to back the currency.
2) Following from the above, centralized European control will have to be established over all national members' fiscal and economic policies.
3) The European Central Bank will have to become a de facto lender of last resort, in much the same way that the Federal Reserve Bank is in the U.S.
4) Direct revenue raising mechanisms must be established that will replace current member states revenues.
5) Formal entry and exit policies need to be established to replace the current ad hoc policies that are currently in place.
6) Eurobonds on a European-wide basis will need to be introduced to replace current member states individual member states bond issuance.
7) Delay any new members being allowed to join until the above six steps are taken.
8) Form a South Africa style "truth and reconciliation" committee to investigate what has gone wrong and how it can be rectified.
9) Improve burden sharing with respect to fiscal expansionary and austerity policies across the whole body of membership instead of the current policy of fiscal contraction in the Southern states (with no fiscal expansion in the Northern wealthier members).
10) Enact a Marshal Style program to assist the Southern States.
11) Establish a fully integrated banking system and regulatory system, analogous to the Federal Reserve in the US.
The book mentions these reforms and elaborates on them but in only two or three pages of the book's text. The remainder of the book is spent on discussing, quite obviously, why these are not feasible from a political perspective. Hence two of the weaknesses of the book, the fact that the political factors against the above mentioned reforms being made are relatively self-evident plus the fact that the economic factors not being discussed in enough detail. Due to the book's weakness with respect to the lack of economic discussion, it serves as a very good complement to the articles in George Soros' "Financial Turmoil in Europe and the United States: Essays". Mr. Soros emphasizes nearly all of Mr. Marsh's above 11 points but discusses why they are so important from an economic point of view. Mr. Soros' analysis, however, lacks a discussion of the political factors that so prevent the aforementioned reforms from being made. Hence the books are almost perfect complements. Mr. Marsh covers the political side (with little economics) while Mr. Soros covers the economic side (with little discussion regarding political feasibility).
Despite the fact that Mr. Marsh concentrate's nearly entirely on political factors the book still does a very good job at making the argument that needed reforms will not be coming along any time soon and that the current policy of "muddling along" will continue. For this reason alone this reviewer highly recommends it. However, due to the lack of economic analysis in his book though this reviewer highly recommends reading it in conjunction with Mr. Soros' book.
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